The conventional wisdom says that winning a micro VC competition like Y Combinator or TechStars takes a bold new idea, something no one else is doing (or, at least, not doing well). And that’s usually the case. But if you look closely, many of the projects they’ve funded—in fact, many of the most successful ones—are almost identical in concept to well-established rivals with massive brand recognition and deep pockets. The trick is that those older rivals aren’t just old; they’ve gone stale.
Posterous is a poster child for this category. Their idea: hosted blogs. Their biggest rival: Google’s Blogger, which has been around for more than a decade now—and barely changed in that time. In a way, it can’t: Blogger is one of the most popular websites around. Mess with the formula, and they might get New Coke’d. So Posterous comes in with their hip, clean, fresh design, seamless integration with Facebook and Twitter (and, yes, Blogger), and an emphasis on mobile devices, and they’re attracting users like crazy.
But Posterous didn’t just succeed with the same idea as the doddering, decrepit Blogger. They were also following the popular Tumblr by a meager two years, and the sites are in close competition for new features. But Posterous’ borderline preposterous devotion to simplicity distinguishes them from everyone else in a crowded field. Tumblr seemed fresh when it started, but guess what? It’s not 2007 anymore. If you don’t watch your back, staleness can catch up quick.
Posterous’ pitch is three words: “Dead simple blogging.” I’d cut it down to two: Blogger, fresher.
[Update, 1/19/10: A precisely contrary opinion may be found here. We fundamentally agree that design is extremely important, but disagree over which of the two top-notch sites has the better design. I believe that Tumblr’s popularity is mainly due to first-mover advantage. The truth will out.]


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